Run:
Premium Collection Opportunities
Near-certain bracket outcomes — buy NO on brackets the temperature has already moved far past. Small profit per contract, high win probability.
May 20 audit, corrected (1,877 settled opps, 7 weeks):
aggregate counterfactual is −0.77% ROI (HIGH −0.17% / LOW −1.54%) — the strategy at full firing rate isn't profitable.
Edge lives in sub-cohorts: HIGH market 88–90¢ on NYC/SFO/DEN/ATL/DAL/MIA/PHL (+4.6% ROI);
LOW market on HOU/LAX/PHX/AUS (+2 to +4% ROI).
Skip both markets on CHI/DC/SEA and HIGH on BOS/HOU/PHX/AUS.
Visual cue: NO Price highlights green only on HIGH-market 88–90¢ opps (the validated sweet spot).
| City | Bracket | Links | NO Price | Net Profit | Return | Temp Gap | Peak | To Midnight | Contracts | Cost | Est. Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | |||||||||||
How Premium Collection Works
Premium collection is a separate strategy from edge-hunting, managed with its own budget pool. Instead of looking for mispriced brackets, we look for near-certain outcomes where we can collect small, reliable profits — like selling insurance against extreme weather events.
The Concept
When it's 2pm and Austin is at 87°F with a forecast high of 89°F, the bracket "≤79°F or below" is essentially impossible. The NO contract on that bracket costs ~90¢ and pays $1 at settlement. That's a 10¢ gross profit (minus 1¢ fee = 9¢ net) with near-certainty.
Signal Criteria
- NO price 85-95¢ — expensive enough to be near-certain, cheap enough to profit after fees
- Temperature gap ≥8°F — the observed temperature must be at least 8°F away from the bracket edge
- Net profit ≥4¢ after the 1¢ Kalshi fee
- Some volume — at least 50 contracts traded (liquidity exists)
- Afternoon scans preferred — more observation data, temperature more settled
Risk Profile
| Price Band | Net Profit | Return | Losses to recover 1 loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90-92¢ | 8¢ | 8.8% | 12 wins |
| 87-90¢ | 10-12¢ | 11-14% | 8-9 wins |
| 85-87¢ | 14-15¢ | 16-18% | 6 wins |
When to Play
- Best: 12pm-2pm PT scans in stable cities (PHX, LAS, MIA, LAX) where the temp is 10°+ from the bracket
- Good: 10am PT for east coast cities where the high is already near/past the forecast
- Avoid: Early morning scans (too much uncertainty), volatile cities (DEN, CHI), days with weather alerts
Key Differences from Edge Hunting
| Edge Hunting | Premium Collection | |
|---|---|---|
| Strategy | Market is wrong, we're right | Market is right, outcome is certain |
| Win rate target | 40-60% | 95%+ |
| Profit per trade | $5-20 | $2-8 |
| Risk per trade | Full stake | Full stake (but rarely triggered) |
| Budget | $100/day | $200/day (separate pool) |
| Best time | 8-10am PT | 12-2pm PT |