Regimented per-city signal log. Canonical times: NEXTDAY = 8pm ET, TODAY = 9:45am ET. Compares what the model fires vs what you actually traded.
Model fired (counterfactual)
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Per-$1 stake hypothetical — shows model edge ignoring sizing
Actually traded (live $)
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Real Kalshi fills with matchedStrategy = forecast-no-{timing}
Capture rate
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% of fired signals where you placed at least one matching fill
Plays
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WR
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ROI
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P&L
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Staked
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| Date | City | Timing | Forecast | Spread | GFS Δ | Bracket | NO Ask | Mirror YES | Signal | Actual | Model Result | Model PnL/$1 | Fills | Cost | Real PnL | Link |
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