Weather Signals

Adjacent-bracket YES edge — offset ±1 YES signals at each scan. Forecast-NO logic is on the separate forecast-no page.

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Live testing since 2026-04-21. Every signal shown on this page has date ≥ 2026-04-21 and is a forward-looking dry-run fire. The per-city EV numbers below are computed from backtested data (Jan 20 – Apr 19, 2026) and will be re-estimated as live settlements accumulate. Split tracking is on Signal History.

Signals today

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Winner cities firing

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Mixed cities firing

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Avg signal price

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Avg EV/contract

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Each section is grouped by market settlement date. Brackets show YES ask / NO ask. Green outline = YES fires (tradeable 15¢–95¢ AND city has a historical positive-EV record at this (timepoint, offset)). Dim = suppressed. See the Signal History for past results.

Per-City Edge Reference

Historical positive-EV strategies (n ≥ 5 tradeable)

Source: scripts/forecast-evolution.js against 392 joined (city, date) records. See the Apr 21 observation post for the full methodology. Edge estimates will shift as more data accumulates; the winner/mixed/loser groupings are in config/yes-strategy.js.